Looking ahead to 2015

Let’s look forward to what the New Year holds in store, the coming months will be increasingly dominated by the General Election on Thursday 7th May 2015.

Before we groan at the thought of endless political clamour we should recognise the significance of government and politics.

If there are specific policies we deprecate it is worth asking what we did to persuade politicians and public opinion not to choose them as opting out removes our right to complain.

The generations who struggled to win votes for all must turn in their graves at the 40% who don’t bother to vote and anyone cynical about politicians has to say what they have done to help elect people they respect.

The 2010 election gave no party a majority and the Coalition was born and the polls currently suggest a similar result but not another coalition.

If he doesn’t win a majority Mr Cameron is thought to favour a minority government and Labour leaders are having similar thoughts.

The Liberal Democrats have suffered from being in coalition and are expected to lose seats and they will want to restore their political identity and not join another coalition.

Alternative coalition partners are unattractive and Cameron is said to have ruled out working with UK Independence Party (UKIP), who are unlikely to win enough seats to make much difference anyway. 

A Labour led coalition with the Scottish National Party (SNP) is unlikely if the nationalists take many traditionally Labour seats in Scotland but they will probably be the third largest party at Westminster..

Minority government is fragile and only survives if given ‘supply and confidence’ support by the smaller parties.

This means voting with the government so that it wins votes of ‘no confidence’ and passes its Budget.

With that in mind the Conservatives have been cosying up to the eight Democratic Unionist MPs and Labour might do a similar deal with the SNP if the concessions demanded by the Scots are not excessive.

We voters will have a big say in what happens but we might not like the result.

Minority governments are vulnerable to pressure from their own extremes as John Major experienced in the 1990’s.

Perceptions of weakness would only increase voter cynicism and they would also make it more difficult for Ministers to tackle difficult issues such as climate change and developing low cost sources of energy, that require long term planning.

Sorting out the economy and the right balance between the responsibilities of the State and the individual and the implications of that for taxation and the welfare system won’t happen in a weak government.

  

Determining Britain’s future international role and relationship with the European Union (EU) also call for a government not constantly fighting for survival.

Christians concerned about the incidence of family breakdown and the moral state of the nation will also be frustrated by governments lacking the will and authority to adopt appropriate policies.

Secular materialism and moral relativism will continue to shape public opinion and public policy until a credible Christian voice persuades us to change course.

My New Year resolution will be to pray for this.

What does it mean to bless the poor this Christmas?

Whether it’s filling a shoebox or donating to charity, Christmas has traditionally been a time to remember the poor.

As Christians, we are – or should be – good at giving to those in need; the Bible is full of commands to look after the most vulnerable.

But what if the needy aren’t miles away, but on our doorstep? 

Inequality in the UK is steadily increasing, and we are currently experiencing the greatest gap between rich and poor since the Second World War. 

With 13 million in poverty, and of these an estimated 4 million living in food poverty, this Christmas many will be relying not on shoeboxes but on parcels from their local food banks.

That this deprivation exists in the seventh richest nation in the world is shocking, but it’s not just this that is the problem.

Also of fundamental importance is the way we view the poor – because the portrayal of the poor in the media is as much of an issue of injustice as poverty itself.

The idea of the deserving versus the undeserving poor emerged in Victorian times, and is a concept that is just as prevalent today.

On the one hand, charity adverts and programmes press all the right buttons to get us to part with our cash.

Against a background of sad music, a tale is told of blameless victims of circumstance, poor through no fault of their own and serious-sounding celebrities implore us to donate whatever we can.

They are the type of ‘hard-working families’ politicians tell us the welfare system is there to help.

And then there is the second camp: the unemployed scroungers, the druggies, the hoodies with ASBOs and the chavs who buy plasma TVs with their dole money.

Newspapers scream headlines of benefit fraud and immigrants sponging off the state.

There is an assumption that some people deserve to be poor because they are too lazy to work or simply bad at managing their money.

The fact is that many popular perceptions of poverty are untrue, and the poor often go unheard, powerless against a political-media narrative that is biased against them.

When times are financially tough, it’s the most vulnerable – the poor and the outsider – who become society’s scapegoat, and never the rich and powerful.

This polarisation of the poor is also far from biblical, where instead of polarising, we are instructed to bless the poor without condition.

Jesus never said: “Give to the poor, but only those you think deserve it.”

This is the Jesus who died for us, regardless of our merit and we should give generously and without judgment, because when we give, it’s as if we give to Jesus himself (Matthew 25:40). 

But when we buy into the humiliation of the poor, we deny one of the core values of Christianity – to love our neighbour as we love ourselves.

So how should we respond and what does it look like to bless the poor this Christmas?

Giving is – well – a given! Whether we can afford a little or a lot, there are many ways to give financially, be it donating to charities or directly to those in need.

But secondly, and I believe just as important, is our mind-set.

Poverty is so much more than a lack of resources: it’s a state that robs people of joy, hope and purpose.

Loving the poor means treating people with dignity and honour, and challenging the notion that anyone deserves to be in poverty.

So this Christmas, let’s turn our attention to giving generously and loving without judgment, just as Jesus did for us.

“Then the righteous will answer him: “Lord, when did we see you hungry and feed you, or thirsty and give you something to drink? When did we see you a stranger and invite you in, or needing clothes and clothe you? When did we see you sick or in prison and go to visit you?” 

“The King will reply, ‘Truly I tell you, whatever you did for one of the least of these brothers and sisters of mine, you did for me.”  (Matthew 25: 37-40)

Would Jesus renationalise the railways?

A recent YouGov survey won the prize for the most stupid question in an opinion poll:

Do you think Jesus would support or oppose renationalising the railways, so they are run in the public sector rather than by private companies?

It's unlikely Jesus would have held a view, given that public transport had not been invented. 

But as one wag pointed out on Twitter: 'He arrived by Virgin'!

This is just one of a series of questions YouGov asked in what it calls 'a new thought experiment', with the explanation, 'we would like you to image that Jesus expressed views on the political issues of the day.'

In the analysis of its findings, YouGov compared respondents' own views with what they imagine Jesus would think which, they claim

'suggests interesting insights as to how virtuous, or at least Christian, they consider their own political views to be.'

For instance, on nationalisation of the railways:

the net proportions who support and oppose it in the public are similar to the proportions who think Jesus would support and oppose it, suggesting that it is not considered a particularly moral issue.

By contrast, however, Jesus would not see eye-to-eye with most of the public on immigration:

where 77% of British people say immigration limits should be tighter and only 5% looser, Jesus is imagined as favouring looser restrictions by 39-15%.

and on the death penalty:

with the public tending to support it by 45-39%, but Jesus imagined as being in opposition by 49-17%.

The most interesting response of all was:

On the issue of gay marriage, the British public maintain that Jesus would be in favour of it - although to a lesser degree than the public are themselves. As of May 2013, voters were in favour by a margin of 54-37%, while Jesus is thought to only slightly support it by 35-30%.

If you're concerned about whether or not Jesus would save the railways from privatisation, you may be pleased to know that the majority (38%) of respondents thought he would.

What have we done to the image of Jesus, liberator of the oppressed, when the public think he is more likely to renationalise the railways than to respect the dignity of loving same sex couples and their desire to make a life-long commitment to one another?

Making sense of the Autumn Statement

On Wednesday 3rd December 2014, the Chancellor delivered his last Autumn Statement before next May’s general election.

The purpose of the Statement is to report on the state of the economy and outline the government’s economic strategy, with detailed changes being announced in the Budget.

Next year’s Budget day is too close to the prorogation of Parliament for its impact to be felt in time to influence the voters so Mr Osborne announced measures on Wednesday 3rd December 2014 that might ordinarily have come in the Budget.

The key aim of his economic policy set in 2010 was eliminating the deficit by next year and that is only half done and more cuts in public expenditure are needed to achieve that goal in the next Parliament.

However much the public recognises the need for this, five years of austerity have left most of us feeling worse off.

The Chancellor had no scope for big hand-outs but had to offer something to sweeten the public mood and persuade us to return him to office to finish the job.

He began by listing what his policies had achieved.

The economy is growing by 3% this year, faster than any other developed economy. Business investment has grown 27% since 2010 and manufacturing is growing faster than other sectors.

More people are in work than ever and 80% of the new jobs are full time.

Average wages have increased 4% over the last year and the gender pay gap is at an all-time low.

We may not feel the benefit yet so what could he do to cheer us up?

A focus on housing was one response and a cut in Stamp duty for 98% of homebuyers, paid for by increasing the duty on the most expensive homes will be welcome, so will the sale of £1 billion worth of government-owned land to make possible the building of 100,000 affordable homes.

Other measures include an extra £2 billion for the NHS, and £1.2billion for GP services, to be paid for from fines on foreign exchange dealing in the City.

The freeze on fuel duty will continue and air passenger duty for children under 12 will be abolished.

Pension law will be changed to enable the pensions of deceased persons to be passed to their loved ones free of tax and there is also help for churches needing major repairs.

The Chancellor observed gloomy prospects for other economies, especially those in Europe which are our major market for goods and services.

A £45 million package will help British firms to connect with the faster growing developing economies.

Multinational companies that avoid tax by transferring their profits overseas now face a 25% tax and the business rate relief on small businesses has been doubled.

The Shadow Chancellor (who when in the latest Labour government was partly to blame for the banking & economic crisis) was as predictably unimpressed who stated that:

 ‘Osborne’s pledge to balance the books by 2015 had been broken, working people are worse off and tax revenues are down.’ 

‘Productivity is not increasing and our exports record is poor. Bank lending to small firms has been inadequate.’

Has the Chancellor done his best?

Will people remember the mess the previous government left the UK in between 1997 - 2010?

The voters will decide on Thursday 7th May 2015