Understanding Thursday 22nd May 2014 election results

The elections on Thursday 22^nd May 2014, have been described as an earthquake.

In both the local government and the European elections UKIP came from the political margins to take seats from all the mainstream parties. 

In the local elections they won 17% of the vote and took 155 council seats, pushing the Liberal Democrats into fourth place with 13% of the vote, losing 284 seats. Labour won 31% and gained 292 seats whilst the Conservatives won 29% and lost 284 seats.

UKIP went further in the European Parliamentary election with 27.5% of the vote, giving them 23 MEPs.

The Liberal Democrats gained only 6.9% of the vote and lost nine of their 10 MEPs.

Labour gained seven MEPs with 25.4% of the vote, whilst the Conservatives won 23.9% and lost seven MEPs.

The Green Party added one MEP to their previous 2 with 7.9% of the vote, pushing the Liberal Democrats into fifth place.

What caused this shift to UKIP?

The most obvious explanation is a growing hostility to Britain’s EU membership and the number of immigrants this has made possible. 

Business welcomes them but the pressures their numbers cause in some communities on class sizes, hospitals, GP surgeries and affordable housing creates discontent.

UKIP has certainly made those issues the core of its campaigning but that does not explain local government results because immigration and EU membership are not local authority responsibilities.

Another explanation is that UKIP’s successes were a protest against the mainstream parties and they are seen as failing their traditional supporters.

Britain is seen by some as falling apart and the mainstream parties failing to stop the rot.

The bankers, the police, the BBC, MPs and their expenses have all let the nation down.

The EU has encroached too far into public policy and leached power from Westminster.

The economic crisis has caused a decline in real wages whilst low interest rates have hit savers and pensioners and benefits cuts have hurt the poorest and unskilled workers are threatened by technological advances.

A shortage of affordable housing and tighter mortgage conditions leaves too many young couples unable to buy their first home and the Coalition has managed an economic recovery but it has still to be felt in the pockets of the poorest who see the Government as on the side of the wealthy.

Seeking to repair its reputation for economic management, Labour is alienated from some bypromising to stick with the Coalition’s spending plans and be tough on those preferring to live on benefits rather than finding a job.

Turnout in the local elections was only 36% and in the Euro elections 34%.

Neither is out of step with previous elections and suggests a continuing detachment from democratic responsibility.

33% of UKIP voters had not voted for the party previously and a poll by Lord Ashcroft suggests that 51% of them will not do so in 2015.

To win them back the mainstream parties need to address the reasons for their protest or abstention..

The looming General Election

Parliament was prorogued on Wednesday 13^th May 2014, bringing this session of Parliament to a close.

It reassembles on Wednesday 4^th June for the Queen’s Speech that will set out the Government’s programme for the next eleven months.

Sixteen Bills have been passed and five others are carried over to the new Session, were the next session will conclude with the General Election on Thursday 7^th May 2015.

The economy will inevitably be a major electoral issue.

The Conservatives will claim credit for the recovery and blame the last Labour Government for mismanaging the economy and creating a huge debt by spending more than the taxes brought in.

Labour will counter that the Conservatives are on the side of the wealthy and they alone are concerned for the poor who have been hit hard by the benefit cuts.

The Liberal Democrats will say that when no party had a majority they had no choice but to join the Coalition to make stable government possible and have proved they can govern and now want an opportunity to do it by themselves.

Europe will be another big issue because of UKIP’s campaign for withdrawal.

Ironically, if UKIP takes votes away from the Conservatives they could prevent the In/Out referendum Cameron has promised.

Nigel Farage says UKIP would back a minority Conservative Government to secure the referendum and that would be welcomed by right wing Conservatives, who want Britain to leave the EU, but not by a majority of Conservative MPs.

Recent polls put the Conservatives narrowly in the lead over Labour but not far enough to obtain a majority and UKIP comes third in most polls, five percent ahead of the Liberal Democrats.

UKIP are expected to do well in the Euro elections on Thursday 22^nd May but it remains to be seen how that will transfer to national elections.

The Scottish referendum on Thursday 18^th September 2014 could also influence the result in next year’s Parliamentary election because a ‘yes’ vote in the referendum would mean the 41 Labour MPs representing Scottish seats would no longer be eligible to sit at Westminster, which could be a good thing.

Although we're Better Together, because the best choice for the people of Scotland is to remain a strong and proud nation while benefiting from the security and opportunity Scotland can take advantage of as part of a bigger United Kingdom

A welcome but gruesome debate on Tuesday 12^th May was about North Korea which highlighted the truly horrendous ways those in power treat the people, especially Christians.

The MPs, most of whom were Christians, called for the BBC World Service to broadcast to North Korea to tell the suffering Koreans that they are not forgotten and they called on the UN to refer North Korea to the International Criminal Court.

Replying, Hugo Swire, the Foreign Office Minister, welcomed the debate and said the Government would press for a tough resolution at the UN General Assembly in the autumn.

The North Korean economy is close to collapse and sooner or later the regime will do so too.

The British Embassy in Pyongyang must be ready to persuade those in power that there is a better way.

So, Parliament may not be sitting now but there is still a lot of politics happening for Christians to follow and prayerfully reflect on.

Gary Barlow and what charity really looks like

How the saintly disappoint us.

Gary Barlow has been found to owe millions of pounds in tax, having taken part in ‘aggressive tax avoidance schemes’ and some have demanded he return his OBE, awarded for his work for charity.

But, we’re a pretty gracious lot when it comes to those with power.

In a few weeks’ time, everyone will have forgotten Gary Barlow’s tax ‘avoidance’ and gone back to buying his songs and stamping his face on shirts.

We forgot about Jimmy Carr’s similar screw-up soon enough, and it’s not as though we set up a guillotine outside the Houses of Parliament after the big MP scandal – our response was largely limited to sarcastic tweets about duck houses.

Grace means that bad deeds don’t cancel out good ones, but grace also means that good deeds don’t cancel out the bad.

Gary Barlow’s work for charity does not alter his failure to understand charity’s true nature – acts of self-sacrifice, considering the other to be as important as us, willingly taking on responsibility for others in the knowledge that all we have is a gracious gift anyway.

All of us live in a state of responsibility, whether we want to admit it or not – we are responsible to those around us, just as they are, in turn, responsible.

Each of us lives in a finely balanced web of giving and receiving, of dependence and being depended upon.

When it emerges that someone has decided that they live above this system – especially when that someone is held in such high esteem by so many, and whose very power comes from the support of those he has betrayed – seeds of doubt are cast among those who have committed.

While he will most likely be forgiven, the scars of this breach of trust will remain in public consciousness, fuelling the atmosphere of suspicion and fear that has become so common in the language of the public square.

Like any relationship, the relationship between Mr Barlow and the British public will only be truly healed with an acknowledgement of guilt – with the language of ‘sin’ and ‘failure’, not of ‘mistake’ or ‘error of judgement’. 

This isn't really a question of ‘to OBE or not to OBE’, it’s a question of trust.

With great power comes great responsibility.

That responsibility includes admitting one’s failings, and being willing to fall on the grace of those you have failed.

The abducted and missing

The horror of the girls abducted in Nigeria can barely be quantified and the plight of those trafficked across the world as domestic slaves or tools for the sex industry continues each year.

Individuals mysteriously disappear each month, even in the safe suburbs of the developed world, despite the best efforts of the authorities to track them down.

And in the wake of such tragedy there is pain and desolation in the lives of individuals, families and communities.

If we live nearby we can help search, we can encourage those affected through visits and cards.

But, for many of us, the only way to help is prayer - geographically we are in the wrong place to do anything else, except maybe by signing the petition calling on the UK Government to act in order to free Nigerian Girls

But all too often words fail us.

All too often we allow our busy lives to crowd out the pain of others across the world.

So why not take a moment now to bring the plight to the Lord, in the [slightly adapted] words of the Psalmists...

Psalm 139:2 -
You know when [they] sit and when [they] rise; you perceive [their] thoughts from afar.

Psalm 142:5 -
[Let them] say "You are my refuge, my portion in the land of the living"

Psalm 54:4 -
[Let them know that] surely God is [their] help; the LORD is the one who sustains [them].

Psalm 20:1 -
May the LORD answer [them] when [they] are in distress; may the name of the God of Jacob protect [them].

Psalm 140:1-2 -
Rescue [them], Lord, from evildoers; protect [them] from the violent, who devise evil plans in their hearts and stir up war every day. 

Psalm 66:1-
May God arise, may his enemies be scattered; may his foes flee before him

Waiting for the return!

It's been kept shrouded in secrecy for years, there have been hints and wild rumours - whispered speculation in dark corners.

And there have been those who have made wild speculations about the timing and nature of this return. It will be soon; it will never happen.

But now we know it's definitely soon. Star Wars is coming...

The new movie is about to start shooting in Pinewood Studios, in North London, and at last the details are beginning to emerge.

The new movie, to be made by Disney, will feature the same trio of actors that were propelled to world fame through the original movie: Harrison Ford, Mark Hamill and Carrie Fisher - plus the original actors who appeared "costumed" as C3PO, R2D2 and Chewbacca - the big hairy Wookie.

The project is being overseen and directed by the legendary J J Abrams - who successfully and brilliantly rebooted the Star Trek franchise - taking old and tired characters and breathing new life into them.

The story of renewal and return is familiar to us as Christians.

Not just from the Old Covenant to the New - but in the coming of the Kingdom with the return of the Lord Jesus.

Now, as then, there were those who made wild claims and speculations. "Look he's here!" they said. "Look he's there!" (Matthew 24 v 23).

The Lord Jesus urges us not to believe them, and not to be distracted. To only trust information that comes from the authorised source.

And what we do know is that when the Lord is finally revealed in all his majesty, there will be no mistaking the event, or the Glory of the central character.

And we will gasp in wonder at how wise, how perfect our Father has been to wait until this precise moment to blow the final whistle on the old order of things and usher in the new.

I'm looking forward to seeing Star Wars Episode VII, but I won't be disappointed if Jesus comes back first.