Understanding Thursday 22nd May 2014 election results

The elections on Thursday 22^nd May 2014, have been described as an earthquake.

In both the local government and the European elections UKIP came from the political margins to take seats from all the mainstream parties. 

In the local elections they won 17% of the vote and took 155 council seats, pushing the Liberal Democrats into fourth place with 13% of the vote, losing 284 seats. Labour won 31% and gained 292 seats whilst the Conservatives won 29% and lost 284 seats.

UKIP went further in the European Parliamentary election with 27.5% of the vote, giving them 23 MEPs.

The Liberal Democrats gained only 6.9% of the vote and lost nine of their 10 MEPs.

Labour gained seven MEPs with 25.4% of the vote, whilst the Conservatives won 23.9% and lost seven MEPs.

The Green Party added one MEP to their previous 2 with 7.9% of the vote, pushing the Liberal Democrats into fifth place.

What caused this shift to UKIP?

The most obvious explanation is a growing hostility to Britain’s EU membership and the number of immigrants this has made possible. 

Business welcomes them but the pressures their numbers cause in some communities on class sizes, hospitals, GP surgeries and affordable housing creates discontent.

UKIP has certainly made those issues the core of its campaigning but that does not explain local government results because immigration and EU membership are not local authority responsibilities.

Another explanation is that UKIP’s successes were a protest against the mainstream parties and they are seen as failing their traditional supporters.

Britain is seen by some as falling apart and the mainstream parties failing to stop the rot.

The bankers, the police, the BBC, MPs and their expenses have all let the nation down.

The EU has encroached too far into public policy and leached power from Westminster.

The economic crisis has caused a decline in real wages whilst low interest rates have hit savers and pensioners and benefits cuts have hurt the poorest and unskilled workers are threatened by technological advances.

A shortage of affordable housing and tighter mortgage conditions leaves too many young couples unable to buy their first home and the Coalition has managed an economic recovery but it has still to be felt in the pockets of the poorest who see the Government as on the side of the wealthy.

Seeking to repair its reputation for economic management, Labour is alienated from some bypromising to stick with the Coalition’s spending plans and be tough on those preferring to live on benefits rather than finding a job.

Turnout in the local elections was only 36% and in the Euro elections 34%.

Neither is out of step with previous elections and suggests a continuing detachment from democratic responsibility.

33% of UKIP voters had not voted for the party previously and a poll by Lord Ashcroft suggests that 51% of them will not do so in 2015.

To win them back the mainstream parties need to address the reasons for their protest or abstention..